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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple formula. It commonly acts as a form of apology. Sorry we got wrong your team in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who orchestrated the biggest improvement is handed the award. In practice, it sparks an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring superior leadership or just the biggest shock.

Yet this year's field is profoundly different. The list of candidates is exceptionally strong. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with recent conference winners declining and longtime strugglers ascending together. In an typical year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. But in this chaotic and thrilling year, he's facing multiple other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical ballot should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters love signal-callers. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to display his special ability. From Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's sustained excellence. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an offense designed entirely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a consistent dose of play-action and a creative passing attack that frees wide receiver targets all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been capable to create magic from broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Almost each gamble – overhauling the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the building with the immense pressure he did. For two straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme dork but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a typical year, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. But the current isn't a typical season!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are famously fickle. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. However he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has excelled at the off-field aspects, which wasn't a given after his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect staff blend of new ideas and experience, he hired first-timers. From the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is intriguing on paper, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

After an early strong beginning, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback had the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting consistent ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. By the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him only one spot ahead of peers.

Still