🔗 Share this article

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a peace deal negotiated with American diplomats are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives will present the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Persist

Following extensive talks in Berlin, US officials reported on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the conflict remains uncertain, especially given Russia's absence from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy said that the US Congress is expected to consider security guarantees and that a complete package of documents might be ready “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the United States would engage in discussions with Russian representatives, potentially followed by high-level meetings possibly this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“We are counting on five key agreements. Several pertain to security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, voted on and endorsed by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to the press. He clarified that these assurances would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, US officials declined to give precise information regarding the probable makeup of the security package or the consequences if Moscow attempted to seize more land after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. has no plans to place boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European countries issued a joint statement that forces belonging to a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting maritime security, potentially by conducting operations within its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these actions would constitute assurances matching NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is scant indication that Russia is anywhere close to accepting the type of package under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Kremlin said it had not received the details of the plans for security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that the country would never accept forces of NATO member states being stationed in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators continues to be the issue of land. A key demand centers on Ukraine relinquishing the parts of the Donbas region it still holds, while the Ukrainian side wants to freeze the lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. You know, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” Zelenskyy remarked following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, headed by two senior advisors, has proposed a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russia would not move forward, with the demilitarised area becoming “an open economic area.” Russia has indicated it could use police and national guard units rather than the military in such an area, implying it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” said President Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the land question. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement like a special economic area could be conceivable if the Ukrainian people approved it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the proposals are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his military objectives.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face precisely the situation we are encountering on our plane right now – instability,” said the president, making the statement after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply more weapons if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the United States,” he added.